The potentially hazardous asteroid 2024 YR4 caused consternation over the last few weeks as its odds of hitting Earth in 2032 dramatically rose. Now, those odds have plummeted to near-zero, as astronomers’ calculations of the asteroid’s path have been updated to indicate that Earth is almost certainly not in the space rock’s plans.
Almost. According to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the asteroid’s current chance of hitting the planet in 2032 is 0.28%, or a 1-in-360 shot. That is a far cry from just earlier this week, when models had the asteroid’s impact probability at a staggering 3.1%, or 1-in-32 odds. It’s safe to say we’re out of the woods—but perhaps still in the backyard of uncertainty? A beleaguered analogy, but suffice it to say that the odds are not zero—but the sudden plummet from such a (relatively) high probability is a sigh of relief.
